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National Forum

Tailteann Cup 2022

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Replying To Loughduff Lad:  "Exactly. We can list teams like Meath, Kildare, Roscommon, Galway, Cavan and so on, who'd be considered good football counties who cannot make the breakthrough there. They've all gone up to Division 1 recently and either been relegated straight away, or just lasted a season. It's absolutely a closed shop"
A "closed shop" is where you're not allowed join it.

Seanfanbocht (Roscommon) - Posts: 2558 - 05/05/2022 10:37:58    2414994

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Replying To kentuckytucky:  "It is a closed shop, look at Roscommon for example, they are a yo yo club, can't make any headway in div one at all"
But they've been in Div 1. What you're trying to say is teams aren't left play in Div 1.

oneoff (UK) - Posts: 1651 - 05/05/2022 10:58:04    2415000

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Replying To Seanfanbocht:  "A "closed shop" is where you're not allowed join it."
Ok, if you want to be technical about it. Maybe call it pulling the ladder up, or a 90% closed shop. No matter if you want to call it this or that, or if you want to spin technicalities, the fact it it is a small number of teams who stay up constantly and many try and don't get up to stay there. Including your own county. In 4 Division 1 seasons you've played since 2016, you've been relegated 3 times, staying up just once. Come on man, look at it...

Loughduff Lad (Cavan) - Posts: 2488 - 05/05/2022 11:00:36    2415001

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Replying To Loughduff Lad:  "Exactly. We can list teams like Meath, Kildare, Roscommon, Galway, Cavan and so on, who'd be considered good football counties who cannot make the breakthrough there. They've all gone up to Division 1 recently and either been relegated straight away, or just lasted a season. It's absolutely a closed shop"
I looked into this too and it was the case that newly promoted teams were relegated around 40% of the time. That's not bad.

Teams not staying up for 2 years in a row is just going to be part of the dynamic of having 25% of the division relegated each year. Even if all teams were equal, there'd still be a 44% chance of a team being relegated over the next 2 season's. 25% in year 1 + 25% of the 75% of seasons they made it to year 2.

You're actually using the openness of the competition to justify it being a closed shop. It's bonkers to me that you can't see that.

Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 4731 - 05/05/2022 11:15:55    2415008

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Replying To Whammo86:  "I looked into this too and it was the case that newly promoted teams were relegated around 40% of the time. That's not bad.

Teams not staying up for 2 years in a row is just going to be part of the dynamic of having 25% of the division relegated each year. Even if all teams were equal, there'd still be a 44% chance of a team being relegated over the next 2 season's. 25% in year 1 + 25% of the 75% of seasons they made it to year 2.

You're actually using the openness of the competition to justify it being a closed shop. It's bonkers to me that you can't see that."
It is really the other way round, and bonkers you can't see it either. You've 4 to 5 teams who have a constant presence, so you're not fighting for 1/8th of the division, or 12.5% of it, but rather you're fighting for under half of the available spaces in any one season. Give me some time to type out a message, and I'll show the data. Division 1 is very hard to get to and stay there.

Loughduff Lad (Cavan) - Posts: 2488 - 05/05/2022 12:57:44    2415037

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Replying To Loughduff Lad:  "It is really the other way round, and bonkers you can't see it either. You've 4 to 5 teams who have a constant presence, so you're not fighting for 1/8th of the division, or 12.5% of it, but rather you're fighting for under half of the available spaces in any one season. Give me some time to type out a message, and I'll show the data. Division 1 is very hard to get to and stay there."
It's hard for all teams to stay there not just promoted teams.

Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 4731 - 05/05/2022 13:11:36    2415042

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Replying To carlovia:  "There's another transfer I seem to remember involving your own county and a midfielder from another county."
Absolute and i make no secret of the fact it shouldn't have happened but for people to say it won't happen when it already is on the increase is the point i was making. Before i was dead against the idea but why should a talented hurler or football's future be determined based on where they are born.. i don't think it should especially if the county they are born into has no ambition at county board level.

wicklowsupport (Wicklow) - Posts: 2273 - 05/05/2022 13:20:26    2415048

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Replying To wicklowsupport:  "There are a lot of things i never thought i would see in the GAA so nothing is out of bounds in my opinion. Hurlers have moved from weaker counties to a stronger county, for example jack fagan played for Meath; he now plays for waterford. Also a guy who was a promising hurler left Kildare to play in Tipperary - Conor Kenny. Davy Glennon went from Galway to Westmeath. So it is happening in hurling. It happened in Kildare when Karl Dwyer and Karl Lacey made the switch, never mind the infamous hurling match involving Seanie Johnston."
Two examples over ten years hardly a long list now is it - the other two are not examples! I think you may find that in Hurling it works the other way, as lads who are in the county (out of their native) and are on the fringes no longer want to make that commitment, travel etc. I just don't see it happening to be honest.

zinny (Wexford) - Posts: 2232 - 05/05/2022 13:30:27    2415051

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Replying To Loughduff Lad:  "It is really the other way round, and bonkers you can't see it either. You've 4 to 5 teams who have a constant presence, so you're not fighting for 1/8th of the division, or 12.5% of it, but rather you're fighting for under half of the available spaces in any one season. Give me some time to type out a message, and I'll show the data. Division 1 is very hard to get to and stay there."
It's easier to get to Div 1 and stay there if the team is capable of doing both. Division tables don't lie. Some teams y-yo (Roscommon, Kildare), other teams stick for longer periods (Armagh, Monaghan, Galway).

You mention 4 or 5 teams who are a constant presence, but that's not really true. in the last 10 years, Donegal a couple of times, Mayo, Tyrone (who stayed down for a couple of years) and Dublin now have been relegated. Kerry I think are the only 'ever present'.

Dublin being relegated is an outlier. Really, the only 'ever presents' over the last 15 years have been Dublin, Kerry and for the most part Mayo. And those teams are there on merit.

himachechy (Donegal) - Posts: 293 - 05/05/2022 13:46:43    2415055

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Replying To Whammo86:  "It's hard for all teams to stay there not just promoted teams."
Data doesn't show that though...

Loughduff Lad (Cavan) - Posts: 2488 - 05/05/2022 13:46:56    2415056

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Replying To Whammo86:  "It's hard for all teams to stay there not just promoted teams."
That 40% of promoted teams going down means that on average that non-promoted teams gets relegated 20% of the time, not much less than the 25% average and probably means that in total at least 5 or 6 teams would be very at risk each season.

Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 4731 - 05/05/2022 13:56:19    2415057

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So, I crunched the data on Division 1 going back to 2008. That's 15 seasons, with 8 teams, so 120 overall individual Division 1 team campaigns. Overall, we've had 17 teams play Division 1. So far, so good you say. If we deep dive into the top end, we see 6 teams have double figure seasons in the top flight, Kerry with 15, Dublin with 14, Mayo 14, Tyrone 12, Donegal 11 and Monaghan 10. These 6 teams have played 76 of the 120 team campaigns. It leaves the other 11 teams with 44 campaigns between them. You can even split this out further. We have 4 teams with 7 campaigns never staying up with straight relegation, Cavan, Laois, Westmeath are all up twice, relegated twice, with Meath up once and relegated once. Down stayed up for 3 years, but then had 2 relegations too and haven't been up since 2016. Further along, we have Kildare and Roscommon, who have managed to stay up one single season, with 5 seasons and 4 relegations, and 4 seasons and 3 relegations, respectively. Some teams skew the data slightly. Derry and Cork were mainstays in the Division early on in the format, but neither have been in the division since 2015 and 2016.

Indeed, looking at the seasons, the Division was actually fluid enough up to maybe around 2014. Donegal, Tyrone, and Monaghan all spent time outside Division 1 at times up to then. But since 2015, out of the top 6 aforementioned top teams, only 3 occasions have one of them not been in the Division. That is 48 'campaigns' from 2015 to 2022 where you need to be in from 1 to 6 to stay up, yet these top 6 teams occupied the spots 45 out of these 48 campaigns. These 3 are the relegations of Tyrone (2015), Donegal (2018), and Mayo (2020) but all bounced straight back up (we'll have Dublin when they're not in the Division next year but not counted in this as 2023 isn't in what we looked at). So what we have, is over 8 seasons, the promoted teams are fighting for 3 spots over those 8 years. Only 3 times in last 8 years has a promoted team stayed up at the expense of one of the big 6. How on earth is this not a closed shop?

I can crunch the numbers more if we want to see percentages, I have it all on an excel sheet, but think the outline above more than shows where we're at, and how it's getting worse, not better. There's a Top 6 and they're perfectly happy with their system, as the ladder is getting pulled up and no one can bridge the gap.

Loughduff Lad (Cavan) - Posts: 2488 - 05/05/2022 13:57:43    2415058

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Replying To Loughduff Lad:  "So, I crunched the data on Division 1 going back to 2008. That's 15 seasons, with 8 teams, so 120 overall individual Division 1 team campaigns. Overall, we've had 17 teams play Division 1. So far, so good you say. If we deep dive into the top end, we see 6 teams have double figure seasons in the top flight, Kerry with 15, Dublin with 14, Mayo 14, Tyrone 12, Donegal 11 and Monaghan 10. These 6 teams have played 76 of the 120 team campaigns. It leaves the other 11 teams with 44 campaigns between them. You can even split this out further. We have 4 teams with 7 campaigns never staying up with straight relegation, Cavan, Laois, Westmeath are all up twice, relegated twice, with Meath up once and relegated once. Down stayed up for 3 years, but then had 2 relegations too and haven't been up since 2016. Further along, we have Kildare and Roscommon, who have managed to stay up one single season, with 5 seasons and 4 relegations, and 4 seasons and 3 relegations, respectively. Some teams skew the data slightly. Derry and Cork were mainstays in the Division early on in the format, but neither have been in the division since 2015 and 2016.

Indeed, looking at the seasons, the Division was actually fluid enough up to maybe around 2014. Donegal, Tyrone, and Monaghan all spent time outside Division 1 at times up to then. But since 2015, out of the top 6 aforementioned top teams, only 3 occasions have one of them not been in the Division. That is 48 'campaigns' from 2015 to 2022 where you need to be in from 1 to 6 to stay up, yet these top 6 teams occupied the spots 45 out of these 48 campaigns. These 3 are the relegations of Tyrone (2015), Donegal (2018), and Mayo (2020) but all bounced straight back up (we'll have Dublin when they're not in the Division next year but not counted in this as 2023 isn't in what we looked at). So what we have, is over 8 seasons, the promoted teams are fighting for 3 spots over those 8 years. Only 3 times in last 8 years has a promoted team stayed up at the expense of one of the big 6. How on earth is this not a closed shop?

I can crunch the numbers more if we want to see percentages, I have it all on an excel sheet, but think the outline above more than shows where we're at, and how it's getting worse, not better. There's a Top 6 and they're perfectly happy with their system, as the ladder is getting pulled up and no one can bridge the gap."
Ok fair enough. That is becoming a closed shop.

I was considering the data from a wider viewpoint where it looks less bad but that is pretty conclusive that the last 8 seasons that it has become a bigger problem than I expected.

Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 4731 - 05/05/2022 14:58:21    2415077

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Replying To Whammo86:  "That 40% of promoted teams going down means that on average that non-promoted teams gets relegated 20% of the time, not much less than the 25% average and probably means that in total at least 5 or 6 teams would be very at risk each season."
3 out of 16 promoted sides stayed up last 8 years. Less than 20%. And with the numbers who stay up out of the Top 6, it shows how slanted it is

Loughduff Lad (Cavan) - Posts: 2488 - 05/05/2022 15:10:46    2415081

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Replying To Loughduff Lad:  "3 out of 16 promoted sides stayed up last 8 years. Less than 20%. And with the numbers who stay up out of the Top 6, it shows how slanted it is"
You've genuinely convinced me. I was wrong.

Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 4731 - 05/05/2022 15:37:15    2415090

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What do ye want?
Don't allow the best teams play in the League?
Make them play reserve teams?

P.s title of thread is Tailteann Cup.

Seanfanbocht (Roscommon) - Posts: 2558 - 05/05/2022 15:56:51    2415094

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Replying To Loughduff Lad:  "3 out of 16 promoted sides stayed up last 8 years. Less than 20%. And with the numbers who stay up out of the Top 6, it shows how slanted it is"
Please keep on the topic of the Tailteann Cup. There is a separate thread if you want to discuss the open shop that is Division 1.
12 counties are well capable of winning the Tailteann Cup. The winner will be in the 2023 Sam Maguire group stage. A massive reward. May the best county win.
Antrim v Fermanagh is the final that I would like to see from the current list of entrants.

legendzxix (Kerry) - Posts: 10075 - 05/05/2022 16:27:39    2415100

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Replying To legendzxix:  "Please keep on the topic of the Tailteann Cup. There is a separate thread if you want to discuss the open shop that is Division 1.
12 counties are well capable of winning the Tailteann Cup. The winner will be in the 2023 Sam Maguire group stage. A massive reward. May the best county win.
Antrim v Fermanagh is the final that I would like to see from the current list of entrants."
You don't get to dictate what we talk about. You have posted and cheerleaded dozens of posts on this thread and the other one, shutting down any talk of adjusting the system layout, lest it be a threat to your beloved Kerry and the other too teams. I've shown the data that it's a closed shop, and this is absolutely related to the Tailteann Cup. And ladder is getting pulled up, the best will play in their own closed shop, which suits you just fine, and we're supposed to take our pat on the head, and be told well done, here's your own tournament, you might get a chance once in a blue moon for us to thrash you and down you go again. All while they ignore it and will let it rot. One place for a winner? It's a joke, and will widen the divide by letting the best become uncatchable more than they already are. Just find it so rich. Like billionaires telling paupers how to be poor better. Leave it off

Loughduff Lad (Cavan) - Posts: 2488 - 05/05/2022 17:17:52    2415113

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Replying To Seanfanbocht:  "What do ye want?
Don't allow the best teams play in the League?
Make them play reserve teams?

P.s title of thread is Tailteann Cup."
This absolutely relates to the Tailteann Cup, and amazing you don't see this. All I'm saying is if we link the League to a Tiered Championship, the current format does not allow the system to operate effectively. You widen the divide as Division 1 teams will race away, and Division 4 teams will never get a chance to get better. The system is set up for the top few teams, yet you can't see it. This system would suit your own team better. A League based on the Tiers works better. 2 Tiers, 2 Leagues. Every team can go up or down any given year, and teams are exposed to more than just their own grade. It allows the weaker teams and the mid level teams to potentially jump a grade effectively, not just cut them adrift. Otherwise we're on the way here to a hurling Championship with only a handful of high level teams with no movement up. This is absolutely all related, come on like...

Loughduff Lad (Cavan) - Posts: 2488 - 05/05/2022 17:23:47    2415115

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Replying To Loughduff Lad:  "You don't get to dictate what we talk about. You have posted and cheerleaded dozens of posts on this thread and the other one, shutting down any talk of adjusting the system layout, lest it be a threat to your beloved Kerry and the other too teams. I've shown the data that it's a closed shop, and this is absolutely related to the Tailteann Cup. And ladder is getting pulled up, the best will play in their own closed shop, which suits you just fine, and we're supposed to take our pat on the head, and be told well done, here's your own tournament, you might get a chance once in a blue moon for us to thrash you and down you go again. All while they ignore it and will let it rot. One place for a winner? It's a joke, and will widen the divide by letting the best become uncatchable more than they already are. Just find it so rich. Like billionaires telling paupers how to be poor better. Leave it off"
To be fair the entry for the Sam Maguire is really not very exclusive.

Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 4731 - 05/05/2022 17:41:11    2415120

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