National Forum

Interesting Stats Ahead Of All Ireland Hurling Final

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I do this with all All Ireland finals every year, and I am never far out with prediction and scores...interestingly Limerick have scored LESS points so far than they conceded - is that a first I wonder. Having played 6 games Limerick scored 9-135 and conceded 4-138, averaging 1-5 goals 22.5 points per game - lets round this upwards to 2-23 scored per game and they averaged at 0-23 conceded - that is an average winning margin of 6 points across 6 very competitive games - 2-23 V 0-23.

Kilkenny played 7 games - one game more than Limerick. Absolutely no disrespect to Westmeath in their opening game which they won by 22 points on a score of 0-29 to 0-07 - I will omit this game from my prediction - if it was closer game yes of course it would be counted. Antrim game was competitive and Kilkenny won 5-31 to 3-20, so this game is included.

Kilkenny scored 15-150 (taking away the 0-29 to 0-07 in a 22 point win over Westmeath) and conceded 11-137 (Westmeath result not counted here too) so that averages at 2.5 goals and 25 points scored per game (over 6 games) and conceded 1.8 goals and 22.8 points. Rounding off/up these gives Kilkenny average game scoring of 3-25 and conceding 2-23. This gives Kilkenny an average winning margin of 5 points over 6 games.

I am predicting going on above - No Kilkenny wont win by their average for of 3-25 against Limericks average for of 2-23 as Kilkennys win over Antrim was 17 points and while both teams scored well it does push up Kilkenny's scores for and against but was competitive so has to be included. Based on Limerick having tougher over all games and conceding less goals they will score 2-23+ V Kilkenny 2-22+..Limerick to win for me, and I think it could be even by 5 or more, basically I think they will rebalance their point deficit which is -3 on them upto now (scored 135 and conceded 1-38) Limericks better defence and experience I think will see them through 2-26/7 to 2-22. Interesting to see how it pans out based on this.

Fairplayalways (Offaly) - Posts: 1034 - 22/07/2023 00:09:34    2496062

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Replying To Fairplayalways:  "I do this with all All Ireland finals every year, and I am never far out with prediction and scores...interestingly Limerick have scored LESS points so far than they conceded - is that a first I wonder. Having played 6 games Limerick scored 9-135 and conceded 4-138, averaging 1-5 goals 22.5 points per game - lets round this upwards to 2-23 scored per game and they averaged at 0-23 conceded - that is an average winning margin of 6 points across 6 very competitive games - 2-23 V 0-23.

Kilkenny played 7 games - one game more than Limerick. Absolutely no disrespect to Westmeath in their opening game which they won by 22 points on a score of 0-29 to 0-07 - I will omit this game from my prediction - if it was closer game yes of course it would be counted. Antrim game was competitive and Kilkenny won 5-31 to 3-20, so this game is included.

Kilkenny scored 15-150 (taking away the 0-29 to 0-07 in a 22 point win over Westmeath) and conceded 11-137 (Westmeath result not counted here too) so that averages at 2.5 goals and 25 points scored per game (over 6 games) and conceded 1.8 goals and 22.8 points. Rounding off/up these gives Kilkenny average game scoring of 3-25 and conceding 2-23. This gives Kilkenny an average winning margin of 5 points over 6 games.

I am predicting going on above - No Kilkenny wont win by their average for of 3-25 against Limericks average for of 2-23 as Kilkennys win over Antrim was 17 points and while both teams scored well it does push up Kilkenny's scores for and against but was competitive so has to be included. Based on Limerick having tougher over all games and conceding less goals they will score 2-23+ V Kilkenny 2-22+..Limerick to win for me, and I think it could be even by 5 or more, basically I think they will rebalance their point deficit which is -3 on them upto now (scored 135 and conceded 1-38) Limericks better defence and experience I think will see them through 2-26/7 to 2-22. Interesting to see how it pans out based on this."
So basically , having taken in to account sll of the scoring stats, you have reverted to conventional logic and common sense to predict a Limerick win.

anotheralias (Galway) - Posts: 819 - 22/07/2023 11:09:20    2496099

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Replying To anotheralias:  "So basically , having taken in to account sll of the scoring stats, you have reverted to conventional logic and common sense to predict a Limerick win."
sorry if that logic goes against what you probably hope is a Kilkenny win to soothe away a Leinster final Galway left behind and would have been no doubt a major boost going into the All Ireland knockout stages...if you read the full article, I have to countenance Kilkennys's 17 point win over Antrim, Antrim did score 3-20 against Kilkenny even if they lost by 17, so basically what I done was rather than discount that game (which cannot be given the amount of scores Kilkenny scored and conceded (unlike the Westmeath game) I factored that if Kilkenny conceded that much against Antrim (no disrespect) then they may likely concede a bit more than normal against a known better team in Limerick. Kilkenny shipped 4-23 also against Wexford remember, scoring 5-18, Limerick have not had any game where they conceded massive goals and points..basically Limerick have a 1 point win more than Kilkenny - factoring in 2 unusually high scoring/conceding Kilkenny games, Limerick are likely to score the few points more against them than any of the fore mentioned Leinster teams...

Fairplayalways (Offaly) - Posts: 1034 - 22/07/2023 12:18:43    2496115

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Replying To Fairplayalways:  "sorry if that logic goes against what you probably hope is a Kilkenny win to soothe away a Leinster final Galway left behind and would have been no doubt a major boost going into the All Ireland knockout stages...if you read the full article, I have to countenance Kilkennys's 17 point win over Antrim, Antrim did score 3-20 against Kilkenny even if they lost by 17, so basically what I done was rather than discount that game (which cannot be given the amount of scores Kilkenny scored and conceded (unlike the Westmeath game) I factored that if Kilkenny conceded that much against Antrim (no disrespect) then they may likely concede a bit more than normal against a known better team in Limerick. Kilkenny shipped 4-23 also against Wexford remember, scoring 5-18, Limerick have not had any game where they conceded massive goals and points..basically Limerick have a 1 point win more than Kilkenny - factoring in 2 unusually high scoring/conceding Kilkenny games, Limerick are likely to score the few points more against them than any of the fore mentioned Leinster teams..."
Great analysis but you can't compare Munster and Leinster and this isn't a dig against Leinster, every county that plays Limerick now,it's their all Ireland, Limerick are being tested,two counties in Leinster are in the top 4,the rest are 8 and down,also Limerick are down three backs for this final,if we lose any more we are in serious pressure,the Limerick panel is being seriously tested,i hope we win but your analysis doesn't take in this

cityman73 (Limerick) - Posts: 770 - 22/07/2023 15:07:58    2496137

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Replying To cityman73:  "Great analysis but you can't compare Munster and Leinster and this isn't a dig against Leinster, every county that plays Limerick now,it's their all Ireland, Limerick are being tested,two counties in Leinster are in the top 4,the rest are 8 and down,also Limerick are down three backs for this final,if we lose any more we are in serious pressure,the Limerick panel is being seriously tested,i hope we win but your analysis doesn't take in this"
I know i dont factor in Sean Fnn and Hannon being out, or Cian Lynch just back, my analysis is based in the facts as are..

Fairplayalways (Offaly) - Posts: 1034 - 22/07/2023 15:44:27    2496143

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Replying To Fairplayalways:  "I do this with all All Ireland finals every year, and I am never far out with prediction and scores...interestingly Limerick have scored LESS points so far than they conceded - is that a first I wonder. Having played 6 games Limerick scored 9-135 and conceded 4-138, averaging 1-5 goals 22.5 points per game - lets round this upwards to 2-23 scored per game and they averaged at 0-23 conceded - that is an average winning margin of 6 points across 6 very competitive games - 2-23 V 0-23.

Kilkenny played 7 games - one game more than Limerick. Absolutely no disrespect to Westmeath in their opening game which they won by 22 points on a score of 0-29 to 0-07 - I will omit this game from my prediction - if it was closer game yes of course it would be counted. Antrim game was competitive and Kilkenny won 5-31 to 3-20, so this game is included.

Kilkenny scored 15-150 (taking away the 0-29 to 0-07 in a 22 point win over Westmeath) and conceded 11-137 (Westmeath result not counted here too) so that averages at 2.5 goals and 25 points scored per game (over 6 games) and conceded 1.8 goals and 22.8 points. Rounding off/up these gives Kilkenny average game scoring of 3-25 and conceding 2-23. This gives Kilkenny an average winning margin of 5 points over 6 games.

I am predicting going on above - No Kilkenny wont win by their average for of 3-25 against Limericks average for of 2-23 as Kilkennys win over Antrim was 17 points and while both teams scored well it does push up Kilkenny's scores for and against but was competitive so has to be included. Based on Limerick having tougher over all games and conceding less goals they will score 2-23+ V Kilkenny 2-22+..Limerick to win for me, and I think it could be even by 5 or more, basically I think they will rebalance their point deficit which is -3 on them upto now (scored 135 and conceded 1-38) Limericks better defence and experience I think will see them through 2-26/7 to 2-22. Interesting to see how it pans out based on this."
I took an interest in your stats, we both predicted a Limerick win but with a different mix of scores. where did we fit into your stats.

supersub15 (Carlow) - Posts: 2904 - 23/07/2023 22:32:08    2496428

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Replying To supersub15:  "I took an interest in your stats, we both predicted a Limerick win but with a different mix of scores. where did we fit into your stats."
I wasnt too far out in ways..Was 3 short for Limerick..Kilkenny were short 7 of what i predicted..that even surprised most..delighted for Limerick..

Fairplayalways (Offaly) - Posts: 1034 - 23/07/2023 23:18:53    2496437

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Replying To supersub15:  "I took an interest in your stats, we both predicted a Limerick win but with a different mix of scores. where did we fit into your stats."
not sure what scores you predicted...while predicted 2-27 (33 points) for Limerick they got 0-30 so I willl be happy with that..I predicted 2-22 for Kilkenny, they got 2-15 (7 points short on that I was) what I would say on the latter I did expect a bit more from the Kilkenny forwards over all...without going checking I cant remember TJ Reid scoring from play and if so it wasnt his normal 3/4 on top of his frees....Adrian Mullen and Donnelly and co. were well held and normally would tap in with 5/6 between them so I suppose thats where my 7 points drop in Kilkenny prediction comes..wasnt it a awesome second half performance bearing in mind Kilkenny got what would normally be a killer key 2nd goal 3 minutes into the second half..Kilkenny went for goals as usual yesterday, particulary in the 1st half when they were a few points a head, the kill off mentality well alive but if they tagged on their points they would have been 6 or 7 up at half time instead of 3..it was great to see Limerick hit Kilkennny hard and fair (what Kilkenny are well able to do themselves) but Limerick were intense but fair in their tacklinng and Kilkenny found out over the last 2 All Irelands what a tough but sporting game can be like from a losing side...I thought Limerick left Cian Lynch too long in midfield, it was obvious after 15/20 minutes that the Limerick half forwards were not holding onto the ball sufficiently to make inroads..look at the second half Gearoid Hegarty and David Reidy had...I was fearing for them at half time but by God they bounced back in style...Casey probably deserved MOM, but Byrnes, Hayes, Lynch, O'Donovan where wold one stop..anyone of them could have scooped MOM...Casey did I suppose turn on the style at key time..

Fairplayalways (Offaly) - Posts: 1034 - 24/07/2023 11:37:02    2496486

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Replying To Fairplayalways:  "not sure what scores you predicted...while predicted 2-27 (33 points) for Limerick they got 0-30 so I willl be happy with that..I predicted 2-22 for Kilkenny, they got 2-15 (7 points short on that I was) what I would say on the latter I did expect a bit more from the Kilkenny forwards over all...without going checking I cant remember TJ Reid scoring from play and if so it wasnt his normal 3/4 on top of his frees....Adrian Mullen and Donnelly and co. were well held and normally would tap in with 5/6 between them so I suppose thats where my 7 points drop in Kilkenny prediction comes..wasnt it a awesome second half performance bearing in mind Kilkenny got what would normally be a killer key 2nd goal 3 minutes into the second half..Kilkenny went for goals as usual yesterday, particulary in the 1st half when they were a few points a head, the kill off mentality well alive but if they tagged on their points they would have been 6 or 7 up at half time instead of 3..it was great to see Limerick hit Kilkennny hard and fair (what Kilkenny are well able to do themselves) but Limerick were intense but fair in their tacklinng and Kilkenny found out over the last 2 All Irelands what a tough but sporting game can be like from a losing side...I thought Limerick left Cian Lynch too long in midfield, it was obvious after 15/20 minutes that the Limerick half forwards were not holding onto the ball sufficiently to make inroads..look at the second half Gearoid Hegarty and David Reidy had...I was fearing for them at half time but by God they bounced back in style...Casey probably deserved MOM, but Byrnes, Hayes, Lynch, O'Donovan where wold one stop..anyone of them could have scooped MOM...Casey did I suppose turn on the style at key time.."
I had Limerick 2 - 18
Kilkenny 1 - 19
You had a better return.

supersub15 (Carlow) - Posts: 2904 - 24/07/2023 13:00:41    2496515

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Replying To supersub15:  "I had Limerick 2 - 18
Kilkenny 1 - 19
You had a better return."
Ime not a betting man but felt too many were talkinng up Kilkenny almost willing them to win for some strange reason, regardless of Limericks 4 in a row, this is their 12th title compared to Kilkenny having 36...I was thinking Limerick would win by more than the 1 point many were predicting while some thought Kilkenny would master them...8/1 odds on a 7 plus Limerick win on a website on Saturday...I dont bet but was tempted..Ide have a few pound tooday if I did:)

Fairplayalways (Offaly) - Posts: 1034 - 24/07/2023 14:55:47    2496567

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