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All Ireland Football Championship 2025

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Replying To legendzxix:  "Well you would have the occasional dead rubber of a team on 2 wins already group winners and their opponent without a win already eliminated, but as the other group game throwing in at the same time would have 2nd v 3rd in a shootout - the dead rubber of 2 wins v 2 losses is just collateral damage and can be largely ignored."
Assuming we stick to the current structure

Chat GPT calculates the following probability of a dead rubber in the last round

Tiered seeding based on league finish (12 & 16 in Pot C/D) ~15-20%
Modified seeding due to provincial finalist anomaly (12 & 16 in Pot B) ~8-12%

All of the above is based on two teams advancing rather than 3.
Strangely, having Clare and Meath seeded higher than they ought to be (if seeded based on league placing) lowers the probability of a dead rubber because

1. Weaker teams playing against higher seeds earlier (as second seeds) have more chances to gain points.
2. Stronger teams (7 & 8) now in Pot C have a tougher path but also can prevent one-sided blowouts.
3. More balanced groups → more competitive final matches.

It then states that:
1. This reshuffling (placing weaker teams in pot B) makes the group stage more unpredictable.
2. It's a neat way to reduce dead rubbers without changing the fixed match schedule.
3. It may also increase excitement and fairness in the group stage.

Interestingly, it reduces the probability of a dead rubber to 7-8% if you get 3 points for a win.

So in summary, we already have the best structure to avoid final day dead rubbers
1. Part of the reason for that is having Meath and Clare seeded higher than they would have been in a league based seeding (creating two strong groups and two weaker groups).
2. If we remove the prelim quarter final and introduce 3 points for a win, we still only have only a 7-8% chance of getting a dead rubber in the last round of matches.


However, we have now binned this structure - we won't know how good we had it until its gone.

tirawleybaron (Mayo) - Posts: 1414 - 26/05/2025 16:17:46    2612804

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Ah sure look it, the double eliminator can't have dead runners anyway. The drawback for some will be no home games but maybe that is the carrot of making provincial finals for home advantage in Round 1 or winning in Round 1 to guarantee at least home advantage in Round 3. Home advantage in Rounds 2A and 2B is by luck of the draw.

legendzxix (Kerry) - Posts: 8879 - 26/05/2025 16:47:18    2612815

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Replying To legendzxix:  "In proper groups of 4 where 2 advance, it is better that Round 1 winners play each other in Round 2. In this bizarre format of 3 from 4 advancing, it is actually better that Round 1 winners play each other in Round 3.
Group 1: Cavan 2, Tyrone 2, Donegal 0, Mayo 0.
Tyrone and Cavan clash in Round 3. The group cannot be won and noone can be eliminated until after Round 3.
Group 2: Kerry 2, Meath 2, Cork 0, Roscommon 0.
Kerry and Meath meet in R3. The group cannot be won and noone can be eliminated until after Round 3.
Group 3: Down 2, Monaghan 2, Louth 0, Clare 0.
Monaghan and Down play each other in R3. The group cannot be won and noone can be eliminated until after Round 3.
Group 4: Armagh 2, Dublin 2, Galway 0, Derry 0.
Armagh and Dublin clash in Round 2. Galway and Derry in the other game.
- Armagh and Derry wins eliminate Galway. Armagh win the group with a round to spare.
- Dublin and Galway wins eliminate Derry. Dublin win the group with a round to spare."
From reading this it would appear that when the 2 winners from the 1st round of group games meet in the 3nd round of games then all 4 teams have something to play for. Excellent work. Would not have been aware of this scenario . It would need the 2nd and 3nd round of group fixtures not to be set until after the 1st round. Does a draw [or 2] in a 1st round group change the above dynamic in any way?

edu (Mayo) - Posts: 106 - 26/05/2025 17:17:34    2612830

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Replying To edu:  "From reading this it would appear that when the 2 winners from the 1st round of group games meet in the 3nd round of games then all 4 teams have something to play for. Excellent work. Would not have been aware of this scenario . It would need the 2nd and 3nd round of group fixtures not to be set until after the 1st round. Does a draw [or 2
in a 1st round group change the above dynamic in any way?"]If it was agreed that round 1 winners would play in round 3 in the current system, if there is a draw in round 1 - the higher seed should take the place of match winner for round 3.
In the 2019 Super 8s after Round 2:
Kerry 3
Donegal 3
Mayo 2
Meath 0
Round 3: Meath v Kerry and Mayo v Donegal.
If 3 advanced, Meath were already eliminated after losing to Mayo in Round 2. Kerry and Donegal had drawn. Meath couldn't catch both Kerry and Donegal, and lost the head to head against Mayo. If Mayo and Meath had drawn, both are still in the championship where 3 advance.

legendzxix (Kerry) - Posts: 8879 - 26/05/2025 21:01:58    2612904

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Saturday 31 May
All-Ireland SFC Round 2
Tyrone v Mayo, Healy Park, 7pm - GAA+
Roscommon v Meath, Dr Hyde Park, 6pm
Down v Louth, Newry, 5.30pm
Cork v Kerry, SuperValu Pairc Ui Chaoimh, 4.45pm - GAA+
Sunday 1 June
All-Ireland SFC Round 2
Dublin v Armagh, Croke Park, 4pm - RTE
Monaghan v Clare, Clones, 4pm
Derry v Galway, Celtic Park, 2pm - GAA+
Cavan v Donegal, Kingspan Breffni, 2pm
There should be more weekends like this!
Kerry and Meath will be looking for away wins to set up a Round 3 shootout to win the group. It is up to Cork again to make a game of it as the underdog and challenger. Down v Louth might decide group runner up. Tyrone can take a big step towards winning their group but Mayo being Mayo cannot be written off. Rochford stepping in for McStay.
Dublin v Armagh should decide group winner. The winner will win the group if their Round 3 opponent loses their game on the Sunday. The loser of Derry v Galway will be eliminated if their Round 3 opponent wins on Sunday. (Round 3: Galway v Armagh and Dublin v Derry)
Monaghan should easily take care of the Clare challenge as they march towards winning the group. Down winning on Saturday will mean a Monaghan v Down shootout in Round 3 to win the group.
Donegal will be looking to bounce back against the impressive Cavan from Round 1. This group might be the more likely to have 4 teams on 2 points if the away teams bounce back.

legendzxix (Kerry) - Posts: 8879 - 29/05/2025 21:26:26    2613518

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Replying To legendzxix:  "Saturday 31 May
All-Ireland SFC Round 2
Tyrone v Mayo, Healy Park, 7pm - GAA+
Roscommon v Meath, Dr Hyde Park, 6pm
Down v Louth, Newry, 5.30pm
Cork v Kerry, SuperValu Pairc Ui Chaoimh, 4.45pm - GAA+
Sunday 1 June
All-Ireland SFC Round 2
Dublin v Armagh, Croke Park, 4pm - RTE
Monaghan v Clare, Clones, 4pm
Derry v Galway, Celtic Park, 2pm - GAA+
Cavan v Donegal, Kingspan Breffni, 2pm
There should be more weekends like this!
Kerry and Meath will be looking for away wins to set up a Round 3 shootout to win the group. It is up to Cork again to make a game of it as the underdog and challenger. Down v Louth might decide group runner up. Tyrone can take a big step towards winning their group but Mayo being Mayo cannot be written off. Rochford stepping in for McStay.
Dublin v Armagh should decide group winner. The winner will win the group if their Round 3 opponent loses their game on the Sunday. The loser of Derry v Galway will be eliminated if their Round 3 opponent wins on Sunday. (Round 3: Galway v Armagh and Dublin v Derry)
Monaghan should easily take care of the Clare challenge as they march towards winning the group. Down winning on Saturday will mean a Monaghan v Down shootout in Round 3 to win the group.
Donegal will be looking to bounce back against the impressive Cavan from Round 1. This group might be the more likely to have 4 teams on 2 points if the away teams bounce back."
More weekends like this, and only 1 game on RTE over the weekend.

D.Hyde (Roscommon) - Posts: 280 - 30/05/2025 09:19:23    2613558

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Replying To D.Hyde:  "More weekends like this, and only 1 game on RTE over the weekend."
It is bad. RTE should be showing two on Sunday.

legendzxix (Kerry) - Posts: 8879 - 30/05/2025 13:21:57    2613616

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Anyone else want to give predictions for this weekend full round of games? for me

Cavan v Donegal - Donegal by 2
Tyrone v Mayo - Tyrone by 2

Cork v Kerry - Kerry by 7
Roscommon v Meath - Draw

Monaghan v Clare - Monaghan by 15
Down v Louth - Draw

Derry v Galway - Galway by 1
Dublin v Armagh - Armagh by 1

Gaa_lover (USA) - Posts: 3633 - 30/05/2025 16:12:01    2613649

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Good second half by Kerry. Some of the 50m advancements by the referee were ridiculous. A fair bit of needle in the game.

legendzxix (Kerry) - Posts: 8879 - 31/05/2025 20:20:04    2613804

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The Value of a weeks rest seen again today, Mayo miles better team

joeteor (Donegal) - Posts: 235 - 31/05/2025 20:43:05    2613811

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Hate being critical of referees but I felt the ref in the kerry Cork game was very unfair to Cork.
Not saying it would of changed the result but just didfent help. Kerry looked to have about 2 more gears if and when needed anyway.

farneygael (Monaghan) - Posts: 305 - 31/05/2025 20:44:29    2613812

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Well well….what does that say? Spillane said Connacht football is useless….Mayo have just hammered Tyrone and I predict Galway will do similar tomorrow.

yew_tree (Mayo) - Posts: 11607 - 31/05/2025 21:08:55    2613822

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Replying To joeteor:  "The Value of a weeks rest seen again today, Mayo miles better team"
Don't think rest, more hunger. Well done Mayo, O Shea was a handful. Just like Donegal a couple of years ago, a couple of bad results doesn't make you a bad team.

Saynothing (Tyrone) - Posts: 2311 - 31/05/2025 21:34:18    2613829

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put 2k on weekend accumulator
Mayo
Kerry
Down

Galway
Armagh
Donegal

Mayo odds have brought up my money, 3 teams above should win handy enough.

Think we will meet Armagh in the final. Armagh have the best panel of 30 of teams competing .

kerry4sam25 (Kerry) - Posts: 13 - 31/05/2025 21:48:00    2613838

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Poor performance from our lads today. Cork were outstanding and played game of their lives.

kerry4sam25 (Kerry) - Posts: 13 - 31/05/2025 21:48:59    2613839

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Replying To kerry4sam25:  "put 2k on weekend accumulator
Mayo
Kerry
Down

Galway
Armagh
Donegal

Mayo odds have brought up my money, 3 teams above should win handy enough.

Think we will meet Armagh in the final. Armagh have the best panel of 30 of teams competing ."
Have Monaghan to beat clare too.

kerry4sam25 (Kerry) - Posts: 13 - 31/05/2025 22:31:23    2613855

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Replying To yew_tree:  "Well well….what does that say? Spillane said Connacht football is useless….Mayo have just hammered Tyrone and I predict Galway will do similar tomorrow."
Id take no notice of what Spillane says He changes his mind week on week.An outstanding footballer but a brutal pundit.

Well done Mayo today.Typical Mayo after their defeat to Cavan.Always exoect the unexpected with Mayo.
I still think Mayo will need at least a draw v Donegal to qualify unless Cavan produce another shock v Donegal.

I did nt write Mayo off after Cavan game (I never would) and I certainly wont be writing off Tyrone either (two many class players).
P.s.Great to see Paddy Durcan back.

CiarraiMick (Dublin) - Posts: 3951 - 01/06/2025 00:08:39    2613878

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Replying To kerry4sam25:  "put 2k on weekend accumulator
Mayo
Kerry
Down

Galway
Armagh
Donegal

Mayo odds have brought up my money, 3 teams above should win handy enough.

Think we will meet Armagh in the final. Armagh have the best panel of 30 of teams competing ."
You might make back the thousands you lost last year under the guise of Cork4Luam 2024

CiarraiMick (Dublin) - Posts: 3951 - 01/06/2025 01:24:40    2613883

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Group winners have the advantage of a weekend off before quarter finals. It follows suit that the 8 counties with a two week gap between round 1 and round 2 also have an advantage. In 2026 they should be able to have all round 1 games on the same weekend. It would be a football only weekend as well.
Kerry v Meath now setup for the group win. Roscommon v Cork for 3rd place. Cork have lost 3 games. They should be out of the championship. In 2026 they will be of they lose 3 games.
Down are having a great All Ireland championship. Qualified as Tailteann winners. Barring a major major shock in Clones - Monaghan v Down will be for the group win. Clare on 3 losses overall will still have a knockout clash with Louth.
Donegal have an opportunity today to put all teams on 2 points. Cavan on the other hand could take a major stride to winning the group.

legendzxix (Kerry) - Posts: 8879 - 01/06/2025 08:13:30    2613898

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Replying To CiarraiMick:  "Id take no notice of what Spillane says He changes his mind week on week.An outstanding footballer but a brutal pundit.

Well done Mayo today.Typical Mayo after their defeat to Cavan.Always exoect the unexpected with Mayo.
I still think Mayo will need at least a draw v Donegal to qualify unless Cavan produce another shock v Donegal.

I did nt write Mayo off after Cavan game (I never would) and I certainly wont be writing off Tyrone either (two many class players).
P.s.Great to see Paddy Durcan back."
That's true but I thought it was funny because the fact is Kerry cakewalk an absolute joke of a Munster football championship. The fact people still go on about Vlre 1992 proves that. It's the weakest championship and always has been.

yew_tree (Mayo) - Posts: 11607 - 01/06/2025 08:31:13    2613901

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