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Another league, another opening round away fixture. Looking forward to it. Newbridge was a nice ground but needed a revamp.
I remember being there in the late 2000s for a qualifier, Keoghan was manager I think, we lost to a last minute goal after putting in a brilliant second half display. It was a good game that day and a lovely summers evening. I would imagine our record against Kildare is pretty woeful both at senior and underage so we owe them one.

97Cavans (Cavan) - Posts: 316 - 31/10/2023 12:54:21    2511045

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Replying To ForeverBlue2:  "Looks like a visit to Croke Park for our first league game of the new season v Kildare…."
Who have we got in the other 6 rounds (Home and Away)

Breffnisbest (Cavan) - Posts: 471 - 31/10/2023 13:54:00    2511057

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Replying To Breffnisbest:  "Who have we got in the other 6 rounds (Home and Away)"
Kildare away
Donegal Home
Louth Away
Cork Away
Meath home
Armagh Away
Fermanagh home

Not 100% sure that is the order but those are the games

nmel (Cavan) - Posts: 51 - 31/10/2023 14:14:24    2511060

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Replying To nmel:  "Kildare away
Donegal Home
Louth Away
Cork Away
Meath home
Armagh Away
Fermanagh home

Not 100% sure that is the order but those are the games"
4 away and opening game away is a tough ask. Mad how we get that so much more often. Fitzpatrick from the Celt had something up that in 24 leagues from 01 to 24 for opening games we've been at home in 3 of them. I did my own looking a few years ago and we have been 4 away 3 home in the bulk of leagues too. It's odd they can't work an algorithm to not have some teams gets it like that so often.

Anyway, we have games we can target here. Have to be hoping not to depend on Fermanagh at home last day to be staying up and/or staying in Sam.

Loughduff Lad (Cavan) - Posts: 2380 - 31/10/2023 15:56:24    2511075

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Replying To Loughduff Lad:  "4 away and opening game away is a tough ask. Mad how we get that so much more often. Fitzpatrick from the Celt had something up that in 24 leagues from 01 to 24 for opening games we've been at home in 3 of them. I did my own looking a few years ago and we have been 4 away 3 home in the bulk of leagues too. It's odd they can't work an algorithm to not have some teams gets it like that so often.

Anyway, we have games we can target here. Have to be hoping not to depend on Fermanagh at home last day to be staying up and/or staying in Sam."
Odd for sure. Maybe a little too odd at this stage. It would be interesting to see who is responsible for setting the fixtures and where he/she is from. For example, I wonder if the likes of Monaghan or Meath or another county have had the opposite pattern.

I think county boards have to ratify fixtures before publication, so I wonder has our county board complained about this "anomaly"?

97Cavans (Cavan) - Posts: 316 - 01/11/2023 13:34:32    2511164

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Replying To Loughduff Lad:  "4 away and opening game away is a tough ask. Mad how we get that so much more often. Fitzpatrick from the Celt had something up that in 24 leagues from 01 to 24 for opening games we've been at home in 3 of them. I did my own looking a few years ago and we have been 4 away 3 home in the bulk of leagues too. It's odd they can't work an algorithm to not have some teams gets it like that so often.

Anyway, we have games we can target here. Have to be hoping not to depend on Fermanagh at home last day to be staying up and/or staying in Sam."
It's just another example of the GAA's lack of joined up thinking… the fact that we are playing in the 10th different division in a row might have a bit to do with it but it's surely not hard for those setting fixtures to balance the home/away opening day fixtures a lot fairer than that…. Common sense is never too common when it comes to GAA issues unfortunately…!

ForeverBlue2 (Cavan) - Posts: 1900 - 01/11/2023 17:19:41    2511207

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Same thing has happened in championship.

In 2020 we play Monaghan away in the preliminary round.

We're excempt from preliminary for 3 years as a result.

And in year 4, we draw Monagahan away again.

Granted only 3 teams could've made the preliminary round, but the odds of us drawing Monaghan away was 1 in 6.

cavanman47 (Cavan) - Posts: 5010 - 02/11/2023 15:48:48    2511323

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Beginning to sound like irish rugby fans, getting the bad draw excuse in now to mask the fact they aren't good enough.

wishfulthinkin (Cavan) - Posts: 1678 - 02/11/2023 22:14:29    2511362

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Replying To cavanman47:  "Same thing has happened in championship.

In 2020 we play Monaghan away in the preliminary round.

We're excempt from preliminary for 3 years as a result.

And in year 4, we draw Monagahan away again.

Granted only 3 teams could've made the preliminary round, but the odds of us drawing Monaghan away was 1 in 6."
I actually thought about this before. With the exemption and such, does it not stand that the chances increase quite a lot that the team you played in your last preliminary will be the team you meet again? It's more likely than 1 in 6 with Down/Donegal (2021), Fermanagh/Tyrone (2022), and Antrim/Armagh (2023) exempt - we were 50/50 to draw either Monaghan or Derry. We 3 were the only options left

Loughduff Lad (Cavan) - Posts: 2380 - 03/11/2023 11:50:36    2511401

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Replying To wishfulthinkin:  "Beginning to sound like irish rugby fans, getting the bad draw excuse in now to mask the fact they aren't good enough."
Well like it is fair to say that both our draw and that rugby draw were very tough. That's not up for debate, no? And the rugby lads were hardly not good enough. They beat the eventual champions, and were the width of a leg and bounce of a ball in beating the other finalists. That's very close and hardly not good enough. I could only wish we'd be as close to a title as that

Loughduff Lad (Cavan) - Posts: 2380 - 03/11/2023 11:52:34    2511404

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Replying To Loughduff Lad:  "I actually thought about this before. With the exemption and such, does it not stand that the chances increase quite a lot that the team you played in your last preliminary will be the team you meet again? It's more likely than 1 in 6 with Down/Donegal (2021), Fermanagh/Tyrone (2022), and Antrim/Armagh (2023) exempt - we were 50/50 to draw either Monaghan or Derry. We 3 were the only options left"
We had a 2/3 chance of being drawn.

Then it was 50/50 whether we'd be home or away.

So it was 33% we'd be away with a further 50/50 chance of it being Monaghan or Derry. . .so 1 in 6 chance.

Funnily enough, Monaghan v Cavan in Clones is the draw of all those possible that is most likely to draw the largest attendance. .

cavanman47 (Cavan) - Posts: 5010 - 03/11/2023 14:58:53    2511445

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Replying To cavanman47:  "We had a 2/3 chance of being drawn.

Then it was 50/50 whether we'd be home or away.

So it was 33% we'd be away with a further 50/50 chance of it being Monaghan or Derry. . .so 1 in 6 chance.

Funnily enough, Monaghan v Cavan in Clones is the draw of all those possible that is most likely to draw the largest attendance. ."
Think you need to go back to maths class. Whatever about home or away, it can't be 1 to 6 odds with 3 teams. You can't run the math the way you've done it. I get your calculations, but that's not the way probability works

Loughduff Lad (Cavan) - Posts: 2380 - 04/11/2023 01:30:10    2511478

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Replying To Loughduff Lad:  "Think you need to go back to maths class. Whatever about home or away, it can't be 1 to 6 odds with 3 teams. You can't run the math the way you've done it. I get your calculations, but that's not the way probability works"
I think Cavanman47 could be correct.

I'm open to correction but the way you calculate the probability of two events happening is you have to multiply the probability of one by the other.

So chances of being drawn are 2/3.

Chances of playing Monaghan away are 1/4 since there's only 2 teams we can draw.

So 2/3 x 1/4 gives you 2/12 or 1/6.

Cavanman47 calculated in a different way but same outcome.

drumalee11 (USA) - Posts: 290 - 04/11/2023 20:04:24    2511507

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Replying To Loughduff Lad:  "Well like it is fair to say that both our draw and that rugby draw were very tough. That's not up for debate, no? And the rugby lads were hardly not good enough. They beat the eventual champions, and were the width of a leg and bounce of a ball in beating the other finalists. That's very close and hardly not good enough. I could only wish we'd be as close to a title as that"
Cavan have every chance of making a quarter final...just as close as the rugby players ever got.

wishfulthinkin (Cavan) - Posts: 1678 - 04/11/2023 22:20:08    2511525

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Replying To wishfulthinkin:  "Cavan have every chance of making a quarter final...just as close as the rugby players ever got."
Of course, but that's not the point...

Loughduff Lad (Cavan) - Posts: 2380 - 06/11/2023 08:09:22    2511668

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Replying To Loughduff Lad:  "Of course, but that's not the point..."
The point is, if you're good enough, the draw shouldn't matter. SA played 7 games in the WC, 5 of them against teams in the top 6 in the world and didn't complain about the draw. If cavan and Ireland were good enough, they'd beat whomever they had to play.

wishfulthinkin (Cavan) - Posts: 1678 - 06/11/2023 10:49:16    2511698

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Replying To Loughduff Lad:  "Think you need to go back to maths class. Whatever about home or away, it can't be 1 to 6 odds with 3 teams. You can't run the math the way you've done it. I get your calculations, but that's not the way probability works"
There were 6 potential matches that the preliminary round could have thrown up. .
Derry v Monaghan
Derry v Cavan
Monaghan v Derry
Monaghan v Cavan
Cavan v Derry
Cavan v Monaghan

Each had a 1 in 6 chance of coming up as no team has a home/away agreement etc.

cavanman47 (Cavan) - Posts: 5010 - 06/11/2023 11:27:12    2511710

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Replying To cavanman47:  "There were 6 potential matches that the preliminary round could have thrown up. .
Derry v Monaghan
Derry v Cavan
Monaghan v Derry
Monaghan v Cavan
Cavan v Derry
Cavan v Monaghan

Each had a 1 in 6 chance of coming up as no team has a home/away agreement etc."
Fair enough on the away or home slant, I was looking at it at simply drawing them at all which is of course more probable than 1 in 6. I get you now

Also, what happened to the reciprocal arrangement? I thought it was meant to be next time you play each other, it stitches. We had them at home 2019, and away 2020. Stands to reason we should be at home this time

Loughduff Lad (Cavan) - Posts: 2380 - 06/11/2023 11:41:01    2511716

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Replying To wishfulthinkin:  "The point is, if you're good enough, the draw shouldn't matter. SA played 7 games in the WC, 5 of them against teams in the top 6 in the world and didn't complain about the draw. If cavan and Ireland were good enough, they'd beat whomever they had to play."
Of course, but that doesn't mean it was abject failure or that the draw wasn't bad. It was a bad draw done very poorly 3 years in advance and did supercharge one side of the draw. That doesn't make it correct, and it can be highlighted

Of course South Africa complained. You clearly haven't been looking if you think they didn't. They've complained a lot about it. In fact they are well known as some of the most sensitive fans and media you'd come across and go mental at things all the time. Ireland were good enough. They beat SA the eventual champions in a great game. They also were the bounce of a ball and width of a leg in beating NZ. That's sport though, there are winners and losers. That doesn't mean they weren't good enough. This wasn't like other QF exits, they were sickenly close here but that's the way it goes.

Loughduff Lad (Cavan) - Posts: 2380 - 06/11/2023 11:46:26    2511718

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Replying To Loughduff Lad:  "Of course, but that doesn't mean it was abject failure or that the draw wasn't bad. It was a bad draw done very poorly 3 years in advance and did supercharge one side of the draw. That doesn't make it correct, and it can be highlighted

Of course South Africa complained. You clearly haven't been looking if you think they didn't. They've complained a lot about it. In fact they are well known as some of the most sensitive fans and media you'd come across and go mental at things all the time. Ireland were good enough. They beat SA the eventual champions in a great game. They also were the bounce of a ball and width of a leg in beating NZ. That's sport though, there are winners and losers. That doesn't mean they weren't good enough. This wasn't like other QF exits, they were sickenly close here but that's the way it goes."
I don't think they were good enough to win the WC.

They were however good enough to get past the Quarter Finals.

Ireland would not have beaten SA if pollard was in the squad. They had nightmare on the kicking tee that night. Pollard never missed a kick all tournament.

If they met them again who knows what would have happened but on the evidence we seen at the WC Ireland were ranked anywhere from 3rd to 5th.

drumalee11 (USA) - Posts: 290 - 06/11/2023 12:57:04    2511736

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