National Forum

The Corona Virus And Possible Effects To GAA Matches

(Oldest Posts First) - Go To The Latest Post


Replying To KingdomBoy1:  "Would you?"
I didn't know mumps kills 2 in a 100 and hospitalises 20 of that 100 with pneumonia.

OhtobeARossie (Roscommon) - Posts: 1454 - 28/02/2020 13:54:51    2270691

Link

Replying To tulachmhór:  "Wishful thinking from a Tyrone perspective ; )

In all seriousness though, I can also see it becoming a major issue akin to foot and mouth in 2002. I'm hoping it won't as it would be a very strange summer without any ball but you never know.

Has there ever been a policy of playing matches behind closed doors etc?"
would Sunday mass be cancelled too ?

s goldrick (Cavan) - Posts: 5280 - 28/02/2020 14:23:16    2270696

Link

Replying To s goldrick:  "would Sunday mass be cancelled too ?"
All church services in HK are now online. Nobody allowed to go to the Churches.

zinny (Wexford) - Posts: 671 - 28/02/2020 15:14:36    2270704

Link

Replying To OhtobeARossie:  "I didn't know mumps kills 2 in a 100 and hospitalises 20 of that 100 with pneumonia."
Nor did I.

KingdomBoy1 (Kerry) - Posts: 10767 - 28/02/2020 15:22:01    2270705

Link

Replying To GameOfTyrones:  "I think a lot of Irish people are doing the Irish"it will be grand thing".

I never worried over bird flu, swine flu(even though that is technically the same strain the killed 50-100 million back in 1918) Anyway, this is different. You only have to look at the governments of the globe to see that.

If you want to find real official stats on the flu v Covid19 . You can look at the lancet medical journal.

Flu infected 100 people, two go to hospital. None die and roughly 1 in 1000-2000 die.

Covid19 infects 100 people, twenty go to hospital. Three die. Now those 20 will probably develop pneumonia, otherwise they probably wouldn't need to be there. That means oxygen treatment.

A large number of those will need ICU. North and South of the border already has issues with beds. So you could see that 3 easily go to 10/15 in time when you can't treat people with oxygen and that is not an unrealistic possibility.

Add in the fact that most of the pharma companies get their basic ingredients from China, there will come a time when there's shortages for basic drugs for diabetes and BP.

Not to mention it has the possibility to almost stop the total world food supply and turn into back into the stone age.

I think in this case, for once, those going to do big shops are right."
I disagree totally, you are saying we give up lock ourselves away and horde food probably while neighbours starve! Panic is one way for a life form to become extinct. I am sure I could (but couldn't care less) produce a different set of numbers. The vast majority of those that die are in a specific age bracket and a lit have underlying conditions. HSE published guidelines today, one guideline said if a self quarantined ill patient gets worse they should get a relative to bring to hospital so as not to overwork the ambulance service. If that is the level of compatence of the health officials in charge we are doomed. But go about as if nothing is wrong, do not ban matches, defy the scare mongerers and enjoy life. GAA has a part to play and not falling for the idiotic mass panic gripping everyone is good.

arock (Dublin) - Posts: 4302 - 28/02/2020 23:42:59    2270772

Link

Replying To tomhealycork:  "Given the GAA doesn't have the TV revenue of soccer and rugby and very much the depends on gate receipts to keep the show on the road. Would the Association be in severe financial trouble if there was no championship? Do they have a lot of money committed to Infrastructure projects, loan repayments, GPA etc based on the assumption that there will be an inter county championship each year?"
I'd say probably

Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 2950 - 29/02/2020 07:02:55    2270784

Link

Replying To arock:  "I disagree totally, you are saying we give up lock ourselves away and horde food probably while neighbours starve! Panic is one way for a life form to become extinct. I am sure I could (but couldn't care less) produce a different set of numbers. The vast majority of those that die are in a specific age bracket and a lit have underlying conditions. HSE published guidelines today, one guideline said if a self quarantined ill patient gets worse they should get a relative to bring to hospital so as not to overwork the ambulance service. If that is the level of compatence of the health officials in charge we are doomed. But go about as if nothing is wrong, do not ban matches, defy the scare mongerers and enjoy life. GAA has a part to play and not falling for the idiotic mass panic gripping everyone is good."
100% arock. As the World Health Organisation General Director Dr. Tedros is quoted as saying yesterday, the problem is not the virus itself but of people panicking about it.

PoolSturgeon (Galway) - Posts: 1387 - 29/02/2020 15:00:37    2270859

Link

Replying To PoolSturgeon:  "100% arock. As the World Health Organisation General Director Dr. Tedros is quoted as saying yesterday, the problem is not the virus itself but of people panicking about it."
Nothing to worry about. If it doesn't kill you, you'll be fine.

neverright (Roscommon) - Posts: 1648 - 29/02/2020 17:10:12    2270887

Link

Replying To neverright:  "Nothing to worry about. If it doesn't kill you, you'll be fine."
Sadly, I'm old enough to be thinking that it won't be long before something kills me.

I wake up in a morning - and that's good enough for me.

lionofludesch (Down) - Posts: 292 - 29/02/2020 17:48:43    2270898

Link

Replying To arock:  "I disagree totally, you are saying we give up lock ourselves away and horde food probably while neighbours starve! Panic is one way for a life form to become extinct. I am sure I could (but couldn't care less) produce a different set of numbers. The vast majority of those that die are in a specific age bracket and a lit have underlying conditions. HSE published guidelines today, one guideline said if a self quarantined ill patient gets worse they should get a relative to bring to hospital so as not to overwork the ambulance service. If that is the level of compatence of the health officials in charge we are doomed. But go about as if nothing is wrong, do not ban matches, defy the scare mongerers and enjoy life. GAA has a part to play and not falling for the idiotic mass panic gripping everyone is good."
Are you Danny Healy Rae's scriptwriter by any chance.

moc.dna (Galway) - Posts: 988 - 01/03/2020 00:06:18    2271004

Link

Replying To arock:  "I disagree totally, you are saying we give up lock ourselves away and horde food probably while neighbours starve! Panic is one way for a life form to become extinct. I am sure I could (but couldn't care less) produce a different set of numbers. The vast majority of those that die are in a specific age bracket and a lit have underlying conditions. HSE published guidelines today, one guideline said if a self quarantined ill patient gets worse they should get a relative to bring to hospital so as not to overwork the ambulance service. If that is the level of compatence of the health officials in charge we are doomed. But go about as if nothing is wrong, do not ban matches, defy the scare mongerers and enjoy life. GAA has a part to play and not falling for the idiotic mass panic gripping everyone is good."
The stats I'm getting you can get from the lancet medical journal case studies/meta anaylsis. Although those are figures coming from the CCP, so I'd expect a fair bit of under-reporting of cases and deaths, so possibly a little worse. Simple as 1 in 5 go to hospital. The CFR is about 2-3% but it's hard to get an accurate reading in the middle of a pandemic but the flu is about 0.1-0.2

The vast majority are in the over 40 category, yes, but there is a significant minority who do not have underlying conditions and are not young, such as a 22 year old female, International Iranian soccer player who died with it and many doctors and nurses in the 20-45 category. It is a very new virus and to think the typical Irish " It will all be grand" and make a few jokes is not how this should be dealt with.

In 1918, Spanish flu killed over 20'000 in this country, we had a pop of about 4.3 million at the time of 1911 census, and roughly 800'000 got it. No, that didn't kill everyone either and luckily, unlike Spanish flu this virus targets the young less but.. In perspective, this virus has the SAME CFR (case fatality rate) as Spanish flu ( and I'd expect it to only increase with volume as hospitals become overwhelmed, as pneumonia needs oxygen treatment and those 1 in 5 cases will not all be able to receive it)

Secondly, this virus has a reproductive value of between r4 and r6.7. That is double, possibly triple, as infectious as Spanish flu. So 20'000 of 1918-1919 in Ireland, could go to 60'000 here, and that is not an unrealistic estimate. Flu kills about 500 a year here, they are simply not in the same boat what so ever.

If you think for a second the world's second biggest economy would build many hospitals and effectively stop production for something parallel with the flu, you're totally wrong.

Everything should be closed now while we have the chance, sports, airports the lot. Also about to be the biggest economic collapse in our history, but that's another topic and not going into it as this is a sports forum and the health part is what will be the main concern.

It's not about mass panic, but that will come naturally with something as serious as this. What do expect the government to do, even if they full out well know ( which I presume many of them have a fair idea)that a decent chunk of the population will die with this. They'll never tell everyone to panic. Panic is only useful for the individual, not the society. Which is up to a few like the HSE, WHO, CDC to try and prevent that, but once people start to notice the deaths/shortages of food/events being cancelled,etc. They will wake up to the reality and panic can no longer be stopped and that's the situation in most of Asia, the U.S and parts of Italy/France/Germany at the minute.

GAA will always be around, banning matches is worth it if it can slow things down for a bit. They will be banning them anyway, I have no doubt about it, be it in a week, or in the next month. The virus can clearly live at high temps as well as is the case with HK and Singapore right now, so don't see a summer burn out sadly.

GameOfTyrones (Tyrone) - Posts: 469 - 01/03/2020 08:47:25    2271023

Link

Replying To GameOfTyrones:  "The stats I'm getting you can get from the lancet medical journal case studies/meta anaylsis. Although those are figures coming from the CCP, so I'd expect a fair bit of under-reporting of cases and deaths, so possibly a little worse. Simple as 1 in 5 go to hospital. The CFR is about 2-3% but it's hard to get an accurate reading in the middle of a pandemic but the flu is about 0.1-0.2

The vast majority are in the over 40 category, yes, but there is a significant minority who do not have underlying conditions and are not young, such as a 22 year old female, International Iranian soccer player who died with it and many doctors and nurses in the 20-45 category. It is a very new virus and to think the typical Irish " It will all be grand" and make a few jokes is not how this should be dealt with.

In 1918, Spanish flu killed over 20'000 in this country, we had a pop of about 4.3 million at the time of 1911 census, and roughly 800'000 got it. No, that didn't kill everyone either and luckily, unlike Spanish flu this virus targets the young less but.. In perspective, this virus has the SAME CFR (case fatality rate) as Spanish flu ( and I'd expect it to only increase with volume as hospitals become overwhelmed, as pneumonia needs oxygen treatment and those 1 in 5 cases will not all be able to receive it)

Secondly, this virus has a reproductive value of between r4 and r6.7. That is double, possibly triple, as infectious as Spanish flu. So 20'000 of 1918-1919 in Ireland, could go to 60'000 here, and that is not an unrealistic estimate. Flu kills about 500 a year here, they are simply not in the same boat what so ever.

If you think for a second the world's second biggest economy would build many hospitals and effectively stop production for something parallel with the flu, you're totally wrong.

Everything should be closed now while we have the chance, sports, airports the lot. Also about to be the biggest economic collapse in our history, but that's another topic and not going into it as this is a sports forum and the health part is what will be the main concern.

It's not about mass panic, but that will come naturally with something as serious as this. What do expect the government to do, even if they full out well know ( which I presume many of them have a fair idea)that a decent chunk of the population will die with this. They'll never tell everyone to panic. Panic is only useful for the individual, not the society. Which is up to a few like the HSE, WHO, CDC to try and prevent that, but once people start to notice the deaths/shortages of food/events being cancelled,etc. They will wake up to the reality and panic can no longer be stopped and that's the situation in most of Asia, the U.S and parts of Italy/France/Germany at the minute.

GAA will always be around, banning matches is worth it if it can slow things down for a bit. They will be banning them anyway, I have no doubt about it, be it in a week, or in the next month. The virus can clearly live at high temps as well as is the case with HK and Singapore right now, so don't see a summer burn out sadly."
I'd prefer listen to the expert opinion of Dr David Heymann of Chatham House and formerly of the World Health Organisation, the man who is mainly attributed with bringing the SARS outbreak under control. This is some of what he said in an interview yesterday:

"The people who should be most concerned are...people in developing countries who dont have access to a hospital at all should an epidemic occur in their country. These people would be at great risk, especially the elderly. Elderly in all populations are at risk, but especially those who dont have access to oxygen.

In Industrialised countries it is the very elderly who have comorbidities, who have diabetes, who have other diseases, who are at risk. THE GENERAL POPULATION DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE AT GREAT RISK" (my emphasis).

Elsewhere in his interview he referred to health workers of all ages being at risk due to the fact that they are more exposed to it In dealing with cases that occur but health workers are not the general population.

PoolSturgeon (Galway) - Posts: 1387 - 01/03/2020 11:55:33    2271085

Link

Replying To arock:  "I disagree totally, you are saying we give up lock ourselves away and horde food probably while neighbours starve! Panic is one way for a life form to become extinct. I am sure I could (but couldn't care less) produce a different set of numbers. The vast majority of those that die are in a specific age bracket and a lit have underlying conditions. HSE published guidelines today, one guideline said if a self quarantined ill patient gets worse they should get a relative to bring to hospital so as not to overwork the ambulance service. If that is the level of compatence of the health officials in charge we are doomed. But go about as if nothing is wrong, do not ban matches, defy the scare mongerers and enjoy life. GAA has a part to play and not falling for the idiotic mass panic gripping everyone is good."
Well said arock. The biggest danger in a situation like the present is panic. There is a confirmed case in Ireland, who is receiving treatment.
There are certain sections of the community, with specific health conditions, who are in greater risk than other people. Follow the advice of the professionals, and not the amateurs.

thelongridge (Offaly) - Posts: 1215 - 01/03/2020 12:25:40    2271096

Link

Replying To GameOfTyrones:  "The stats I'm getting you can get from the lancet medical journal case studies/meta anaylsis. Although those are figures coming from the CCP, so I'd expect a fair bit of under-reporting of cases and deaths, so possibly a little worse. Simple as 1 in 5 go to hospital. The CFR is about 2-3% but it's hard to get an accurate reading in the middle of a pandemic but the flu is about 0.1-0.2

The vast majority are in the over 40 category, yes, but there is a significant minority who do not have underlying conditions and are not young, such as a 22 year old female, International Iranian soccer player who died with it and many doctors and nurses in the 20-45 category. It is a very new virus and to think the typical Irish " It will all be grand" and make a few jokes is not how this should be dealt with.

In 1918, Spanish flu killed over 20'000 in this country, we had a pop of about 4.3 million at the time of 1911 census, and roughly 800'000 got it. No, that didn't kill everyone either and luckily, unlike Spanish flu this virus targets the young less but.. In perspective, this virus has the SAME CFR (case fatality rate) as Spanish flu ( and I'd expect it to only increase with volume as hospitals become overwhelmed, as pneumonia needs oxygen treatment and those 1 in 5 cases will not all be able to receive it)

Secondly, this virus has a reproductive value of between r4 and r6.7. That is double, possibly triple, as infectious as Spanish flu. So 20'000 of 1918-1919 in Ireland, could go to 60'000 here, and that is not an unrealistic estimate. Flu kills about 500 a year here, they are simply not in the same boat what so ever.

If you think for a second the world's second biggest economy would build many hospitals and effectively stop production for something parallel with the flu, you're totally wrong.

Everything should be closed now while we have the chance, sports, airports the lot. Also about to be the biggest economic collapse in our history, but that's another topic and not going into it as this is a sports forum and the health part is what will be the main concern.

It's not about mass panic, but that will come naturally with something as serious as this. What do expect the government to do, even if they full out well know ( which I presume many of them have a fair idea)that a decent chunk of the population will die with this. They'll never tell everyone to panic. Panic is only useful for the individual, not the society. Which is up to a few like the HSE, WHO, CDC to try and prevent that, but once people start to notice the deaths/shortages of food/events being cancelled,etc. They will wake up to the reality and panic can no longer be stopped and that's the situation in most of Asia, the U.S and parts of Italy/France/Germany at the minute.

GAA will always be around, banning matches is worth it if it can slow things down for a bit. They will be banning them anyway, I have no doubt about it, be it in a week, or in the next month. The virus can clearly live at high temps as well as is the case with HK and Singapore right now, so don't see a summer burn out sadly."
Great post.

moc.dna (Galway) - Posts: 988 - 01/03/2020 13:30:41    2271113

Link

Replying To PoolSturgeon:  "I'd prefer listen to the expert opinion of Dr David Heymann of Chatham House and formerly of the World Health Organisation, the man who is mainly attributed with bringing the SARS outbreak under control. This is some of what he said in an interview yesterday:

"The people who should be most concerned are...people in developing countries who dont have access to a hospital at all should an epidemic occur in their country. These people would be at great risk, especially the elderly. Elderly in all populations are at risk, but especially those who dont have access to oxygen.

In Industrialised countries it is the very elderly who have comorbidities, who have diabetes, who have other diseases, who are at risk. THE GENERAL POPULATION DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE AT GREAT RISK" (my emphasis).

Elsewhere in his interview he referred to health workers of all ages being at risk due to the fact that they are more exposed to it In dealing with cases that occur but health workers are not the general population."
Well said.

lilylanger (Kildare) - Posts: 437 - 01/03/2020 14:02:16    2271118

Link

Replying To GameOfTyrones:  "The stats I'm getting you can get from the lancet medical journal case studies/meta anaylsis. Although those are figures coming from the CCP, so I'd expect a fair bit of under-reporting of cases and deaths, so possibly a little worse. Simple as 1 in 5 go to hospital. The CFR is about 2-3% but it's hard to get an accurate reading in the middle of a pandemic but the flu is about 0.1-0.2

The vast majority are in the over 40 category, yes, but there is a significant minority who do not have underlying conditions and are not young, such as a 22 year old female, International Iranian soccer player who died with it and many doctors and nurses in the 20-45 category. It is a very new virus and to think the typical Irish " It will all be grand" and make a few jokes is not how this should be dealt with.

In 1918, Spanish flu killed over 20'000 in this country, we had a pop of about 4.3 million at the time of 1911 census, and roughly 800'000 got it. No, that didn't kill everyone either and luckily, unlike Spanish flu this virus targets the young less but.. In perspective, this virus has the SAME CFR (case fatality rate) as Spanish flu ( and I'd expect it to only increase with volume as hospitals become overwhelmed, as pneumonia needs oxygen treatment and those 1 in 5 cases will not all be able to receive it)

Secondly, this virus has a reproductive value of between r4 and r6.7. That is double, possibly triple, as infectious as Spanish flu. So 20'000 of 1918-1919 in Ireland, could go to 60'000 here, and that is not an unrealistic estimate. Flu kills about 500 a year here, they are simply not in the same boat what so ever.

If you think for a second the world's second biggest economy would build many hospitals and effectively stop production for something parallel with the flu, you're totally wrong.

Everything should be closed now while we have the chance, sports, airports the lot. Also about to be the biggest economic collapse in our history, but that's another topic and not going into it as this is a sports forum and the health part is what will be the main concern.

It's not about mass panic, but that will come naturally with something as serious as this. What do expect the government to do, even if they full out well know ( which I presume many of them have a fair idea)that a decent chunk of the population will die with this. They'll never tell everyone to panic. Panic is only useful for the individual, not the society. Which is up to a few like the HSE, WHO, CDC to try and prevent that, but once people start to notice the deaths/shortages of food/events being cancelled,etc. They will wake up to the reality and panic can no longer be stopped and that's the situation in most of Asia, the U.S and parts of Italy/France/Germany at the minute.

GAA will always be around, banning matches is worth it if it can slow things down for a bit. They will be banning them anyway, I have no doubt about it, be it in a week, or in the next month. The virus can clearly live at high temps as well as is the case with HK and Singapore right now, so don't see a summer burn out sadly."
I am sorry but "panic" define it? Because I follow this closely I have too, there is no panic in any of the countries with it, quite the opposite. Mass panic is not likely if it occurs we have security forces to cool things down. Just go about your business, do the sensible things that's all that matters, that is all you can do, putting a face mask on is as useless as hording tins of beans and tuna. As for the HSE I have zero faith in that organisation as do most people in this country. GAA is responsible, if calling off games help so be it. Vast majority of people outside the High risk catagory have nothing to fear.

arock (Dublin) - Posts: 4302 - 01/03/2020 14:45:28    2271123

Link

One good panic barometer is to see how quickly the sliced pans disappear off the shelves in Tesco

Maroonatic (Galway) - Posts: 922 - 01/03/2020 17:33:24    2271218

Link

Coronavirus worry at my in my nieces school. School closed for 2 weeks due to close links to the man infectied.

Jackeen (Dublin) - Posts: 3966 - 01/03/2020 18:00:29    2271242

Link

Not finger pointing or anything but maybe lets use a little discretion when referring to locations etc.
(Also, I would like to point out there are other outlets other than Tesco)

Maroonatic (Galway) - Posts: 922 - 01/03/2020 20:15:27    2271331

Link

Replying To Maroonatic:  "Not finger pointing or anything but maybe lets use a little discretion when referring to locations etc.
(Also, I would like to point out there are other outlets other than Tesco)"
I think the pig and its mother knows the location and place why oh why would you NOT state location. This is what China did and look where it got them. Openness implies trust and the school in question its pupils are in three local clubs people in those clubs must know.

arock (Dublin) - Posts: 4302 - 01/03/2020 21:06:48    2271364

Link