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Have to laugh at a lot of the rubbish you hear from analysts and reporters when they start talking about the championship ahead and how it is "looking ominous " for everyone else.
Dublin have won another league title after loosing out last year and won the last few AIs by a point or two and yet there appears to be no hope for anyone else. Look, of course as champions Dublin will be favourites going into games but I do not see this as being a foregone conclusion at all this year. In fact, I think it's going to be really competitive year with some very hard questions being asked and absolutely no guarantee of the outcome.
Dubh_linn (Dublin) - Posts: 2312 - 02/04/2018 09:57:52
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I started a thread a couple of days ago about league form and how it gives glimpses of championship form.
Basically, it comes down to teams who are aiming at both league and provincial glory.
Tyrone and Monahan in ulster are doing this exact thing. They have built up great form over the later half of the league and are aiming at a titanic first round game. The losers of this tie might as well start training for 2019 after it. Same with Cavan. They are out in Ballybofey in a preliminary round clash and obviously have hopes to go on to an ulster final.
Galway are going to try going all the way through the front door, with a stinker of a game in Castlebar. If they lose this, or the Connaught final v Roscommon, they are going to have to dig very deep emotionally to regroup. Couple this with the training they have been doing in order to prepare for that time of year and you are looking at a huge task to keep levels up.
Mayo have kept a bit up their sleeve and despite not looking great at all in the league, might have gambled successfully on a quiet league. If they manage to get all their men back in good shape, even if they do slip up against galway, they will have enough to regroup for a run in the back door and on to the super 8 competition.
Which leaves Kerry and Dublin. Kerry did enough to stay up once they won their first 2 games. They were never going to lose v Kildare at home and managed a very useful league campaign blooding in new guys and resting older players. Last year they ended up in a league final by an unusual series of results on the last 2 days of the league. They never went all out to get to the final, but won it once they found themselves in the league final. They are perfectly primed to arrive in the super 8 competition in very rude health.
Which leads to the Dubs. With their talent and enormous bench, they can run whatever league campaign they like and still end up either in a final or winning it. It would be a miracle if they were to not make it beyond the super 8 competition.
Basically, you are looking at stables now rather than teams, who train and prepare on an algorhythmic timeline. If there is any upset to this preparation, then the horse is not going to win the race.
for this reason, I believe that the bookies have the prices correct. The only team I could see beating Dublin in the semis if they so happen to meet would be Kerry.
Donegalman (None) - Posts: 3830 - 02/04/2018 11:52:01
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The new format will be fascinating and I am looking forward to it immensely.
Donegalman I think that's a good summary of things, league form has always been deceptive. I think Mayo and Kerry in particular would have very little hard work done at this stage and both gambled on staying up. I would take very little notice of their league results tbh.
You'll have several teams in both Super 8 groups capable of beating each other. I wouldn't put my lottery winnings on anybody but Dublin making it to the semi final. A couple of injuries to key players could make them vulnerable but they are justifiably warm favourites and will be very hard to beat in Croke Park as usual.
GeniusGerry (Kerry) - Posts: 2105 - 02/04/2018 12:30:29
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Replying To GeniusGerry: "The new format will be fascinating and I am looking forward to it immensely.
Donegalman I think that's a good summary of things, league form has always been deceptive. I think Mayo and Kerry in particular would have very little hard work done at this stage and both gambled on staying up. I would take very little notice of their league results tbh.
You'll have several teams in both Super 8 groups capable of beating each other. I wouldn't put my lottery winnings on anybody but Dublin making it to the semi final. A couple of injuries to key players could make them vulnerable but they are justifiably warm favourites and will be very hard to beat in Croke Park as usual." This is where squad size comes into the equation, and I believe that if management play the best players rather than their usual players, it is going to be even more in favour of the top 4 teams.
Donegalman (None) - Posts: 3830 - 02/04/2018 13:06:04
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Replying To GeniusGerry: "The new format will be fascinating and I am looking forward to it immensely.
Donegalman I think that's a good summary of things, league form has always been deceptive. I think Mayo and Kerry in particular would have very little hard work done at this stage and both gambled on staying up. I would take very little notice of their league results tbh.
You'll have several teams in both Super 8 groups capable of beating each other. I wouldn't put my lottery winnings on anybody but Dublin making it to the semi final. A couple of injuries to key players could make them vulnerable but they are justifiably warm favourites and will be very hard to beat in Croke Park as usual." "Looking forward to the new format" says the majority of counties never
Sorry poster but the new format is welcomed by the few elite teams and the rest await a fair review in 3 years when this experiment passes
As George Orwell's Irish cousin said ... "all counties are equal but some Irish counties are more equal than others "
AnBuachaillGlas (Fermanagh) - Posts: 287 - 02/04/2018 13:13:52
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Replying To AnBuachaillGlas: ""Looking forward to the new format" says the majority of counties never
Sorry poster but the new format is welcomed by the few elite teams and the rest await a fair review in 3 years when this experiment passes
As George Orwell's Irish cousin said ... "all counties are equal but some Irish counties are more equal than others "" I can understand that POV, ultimately I think a two tier structure is the answer but the non 'elite' teams don't seem to want that. It's the nature of most sports that the strongest teams are left at the end and GAA is no different.
I can definitely see where you are coming from though. This will make the good teams better and cause further disillusionment in the other counties who are on the outside.
GeniusGerry (Kerry) - Posts: 2105 - 02/04/2018 13:53:44
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Is the super 8s not made up from the 4 provincial winners plus the 4 other teams who have arrived at that stage via back door or whatever?? I see the following 8 teams in the super 8s. Dublin, kerry, Galway, monaghan, Mayo, Tyrone, Donegal, plus 1 other and I cannot call that one other.
border Gael (Monaghan) - Posts: 894 - 02/04/2018 13:54:36
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IMO the championship is a done deal with the dubs winning a handy 4th title in a row, with the rest of the country fighting for second place which is a depressing thought, we once had a great championship where many teams came and won allirelands but now thanks to the GAAs financial doping of Dublin it's disturbed the natural eco system and this is what we've been left with.
KingdomBoy1 (Kerry) - Posts: 14092 - 02/04/2018 14:18:28
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Replying To border Gael: "Is the super 8s not made up from the 4 provincial winners plus the 4 other teams who have arrived at that stage via back door or whatever?? I see the following 8 teams in the super 8s. Dublin, kerry, Galway, monaghan, Mayo, Tyrone, Donegal, plus 1 other and I cannot call that one other." Yes so you will have the same 8 teams as would normally make the old QF's. The Super 8's is about squeezing more games out of the summer, and ultimately money.
Your teams are probably close enough to what we'll have depending on who meets who in the qualifiers. Tipp, Cork, Kildare, Cavan, Fermanagh and a few others will all be in with a shout.
It will certainly suit the teams with stronger overall panels because of injuries and suspensions that come with the extra games.
GeniusGerry (Kerry) - Posts: 2105 - 02/04/2018 14:18:52
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Replying To border Gael: "Is the super 8s not made up from the 4 provincial winners plus the 4 other teams who have arrived at that stage via back door or whatever?? I see the following 8 teams in the super 8s. Dublin, kerry, Galway, monaghan, Mayo, Tyrone, Donegal, plus 1 other and I cannot call that one other." Your point being?
Donegalman (None) - Posts: 3830 - 02/04/2018 14:29:13
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Replying To border Gael: "Is the super 8s not made up from the 4 provincial winners plus the 4 other teams who have arrived at that stage via back door or whatever?? I see the following 8 teams in the super 8s. Dublin, kerry, Galway, monaghan, Mayo, Tyrone, Donegal, plus 1 other and I cannot call that one other." Roscommon have to win 1 match to get there so they are in with a great shout. Win connacht or if the lose win one qualifier
tipp11 (Tipperary) - Posts: 353 - 02/04/2018 14:29:56
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Replying To border Gael: "Is the super 8s not made up from the 4 provincial winners plus the 4 other teams who have arrived at that stage via back door or whatever?? I see the following 8 teams in the super 8s. Dublin, kerry, Galway, monaghan, Mayo, Tyrone, Donegal, plus 1 other and I cannot call that one other." That is correct, it is the same system used to get to Quarter finals only this year the last 8 structure changes. You have named in an ideal world the 7 strongest teams in the country. However I can see some big hitters missing out. Tyrone V Monaghan, Mayo V Galway and Donegal V an ever improving Cavan guarantees a very strong qualifer system. There will be three very good teams competing in the early round of the qualifers and who is to say two will not draw each other? Add to that mix the loser of Fermanagh V Armagh (Two tricky teams) and the loser of Meath V Longford (again tricky) and the first few rounds will be highly competitive. I reckon there will be two places for teams playing in Div 2 downwards in the last 8. My prediction for the super 8's are Dublin, Kerry, Tyrone and Mayo ( I think Mayo will beat Galway and go on to win the province). I then think it will take a huge effort from the other 4 qualifers to get there and expect some titantic games prior to the super 8. In many ways the super 8 will improve the Championship long before the 8 teams are known.
sam1884 (UK) - Posts: 999 - 02/04/2018 14:34:23
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I think we will see a bit of gerrymandering in the S8's, i would almost put money on the Dubs away game being in Pairc Ui Chaoimh this year, should we get there. ;)
TheUsername (Dublin) - Posts: 4445 - 02/04/2018 14:57:55
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Replying To border Gael: "Is the super 8s not made up from the 4 provincial winners plus the 4 other teams who have arrived at that stage via back door or whatever?? I see the following 8 teams in the super 8s. Dublin, kerry, Galway, monaghan, Mayo, Tyrone, Donegal, plus 1 other and I cannot call that one other." You might be right, but I wouldn't bet my house on donegal making it, and even Monaghan might have a battle. I also don't think you could discount Roscommon, who are in the farcical situation of really only having to win one of two games (can get beat in Connaught final) and still qualify while donegal could have to play 4 games or win 4 to get to same stage. Even look at my own county (even after a inconsistent league) would have to beat longford DUBLIN, and probably Kildare to go through front door or end up after one win playing dubs and then going in to qualifying system.
It's a joke of a set up. If this has any future the provincial championship has to have nothing got to do with it, been in Munster or Connaught is such a advantage than ulster or Leinster. The Roscommon situation is making a laugh out of this new set up .
royaldunne (Meath) - Posts: 19449 - 02/04/2018 16:47:30
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Replying To royaldunne: "You might be right, but I wouldn't bet my house on donegal making it, and even Monaghan might have a battle. I also don't think you could discount Roscommon, who are in the farcical situation of really only having to win one of two games (can get beat in Connaught final) and still qualify while donegal could have to play 4 games or win 4 to get to same stage. Even look at my own county (even after a inconsistent league) would have to beat longford DUBLIN, and probably Kildare to go through front door or end up after one win playing dubs and then going in to qualifying system.
It's a joke of a set up. If this has any future the provincial championship has to have nothing got to do with it, been in Munster or Connaught is such a advantage than ulster or Leinster. The Roscommon situation is making a laugh out of this new set up ." The Leinster championship is really tough. If a teams on the same half of the draw as Dublin they are practically guaranteed to need to win 3 qualifiers to get through to the Super 8.
I don't really mind the Super 8 itself, I think it's good that there will be more top matches (hopefully anyway). The changes just didn't fix what was broken with the old system. At all really.
Whammo86 (Antrim) - Posts: 4226 - 02/04/2018 18:55:35
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Replying To royaldunne: "You might be right, but I wouldn't bet my house on donegal making it, and even Monaghan might have a battle. I also don't think you could discount Roscommon, who are in the farcical situation of really only having to win one of two games (can get beat in Connaught final) and still qualify while donegal could have to play 4 games or win 4 to get to same stage. Even look at my own county (even after a inconsistent league) would have to beat longford DUBLIN, and probably Kildare to go through front door or end up after one win playing dubs and then going in to qualifying system.
It's a joke of a set up. If this has any future the provincial championship has to have nothing got to do with it, been in Munster or Connaught is such a advantage than ulster or Leinster. The Roscommon situation is making a laugh out of this new set up ." Do you think Meath are a top 8 team at the moment?
neverright (Roscommon) - Posts: 1648 - 02/04/2018 19:10:47
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Replying To royaldunne: "You might be right, but I wouldn't bet my house on donegal making it, and even Monaghan might have a battle. I also don't think you could discount Roscommon, who are in the farcical situation of really only having to win one of two games (can get beat in Connaught final) and still qualify while donegal could have to play 4 games or win 4 to get to same stage. Even look at my own county (even after a inconsistent league) would have to beat longford DUBLIN, and probably Kildare to go through front door or end up after one win playing dubs and then going in to qualifying system.
It's a joke of a set up. If this has any future the provincial championship has to have nothing got to do with it, been in Munster or Connaught is such a advantage than ulster or Leinster. The Roscommon situation is making a laugh out of this new set up ." We don't make the rules rd it's just the way it works out.i would love a different set up for championship football..if Meath are as good as you seem to think they are ye should have no problem beating all teams in Leinster apart from Dublin..
dave1988 (Roscommon) - Posts: 1057 - 02/04/2018 19:13:41
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Anyway the most intetesting phase o the inter county season is OVER for the majority of the country ... but that's another debate entirely.. super 8s me a@£e
AnBuachaillGlas (Fermanagh) - Posts: 287 - 02/04/2018 20:12:19
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Replying To KingdomBoy1: "IMO the championship is a done deal with the dubs winning a handy 4th title in a row, with the rest of the country fighting for second place which is a depressing thought, we once had a great championship where many teams came and won allirelands but now thanks to the GAAs financial doping of Dublin it's disturbed the natural eco system and this is what we've been left with." Teams that won Sam in 00's
Kerry
Tyrone
Galway
Armagh
Teams that have won Sam in 10's
Dublin
Cork
Donegal
Kerry
Seems like a fairly similar spread of 4 Sams to 4 counties
jimbodub (Dublin) - Posts: 20600 - 02/04/2018 20:21:13
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Replying To neverright: "Do you think Meath are a top 8 team at the moment?" so a wicklow, limerick or antrim man etc. arent able to have an opinion on the super 8s just because its unlikely that they will make it?
NaomhNaille (Donegal) - Posts: 124 - 02/04/2018 20:33:27
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